Assessment of the March 9 KN-25 Test Launch

Interval Training and Salvo Testing?

As KN-25 testing has progressed, the interval of time between projectile firings has generally decreased. The initial tests of the KN-25 took over 20 minutes between firings. However, during last week’s launch, that interval was only 20 seconds. This rate was replicated between two of the projectiles in Monday’s series as well. At this pace, and given the four-tube wheeled transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) observed from the previous five KN-25 tests, a full salvo of projectiles could be fired within one minute.

With interval times greatly reduced, testing may now refocus on demonstrating a full-salvo launch, a key development milestone towards a deployable system. Previous tests had indicated only two of the four projectiles had ever been launched. However, imagery analysis of the September 10, 2019, tests suggested an early attempt to go beyond this.

The three reported projectiles launched in Monday’s test have caused speculation of a further full salvo attempt—the extended one-minute interval reported between successful rounds potentially concealing a failure within this period. Indeed, some reports citing US officials state there were four projectiles while another indicates two smaller KN-09 guided projectiles may have also been launched. The imagery released to date of the KN-25 launcher, however, shows the apparent use of only the top pair of launch tubes.

While the KN-09 was not visible, other systems including a 240 mm unguided MRLS system were also fired—the same as on March 2—potentially complicating accurate assessments of projectile types and concealing any failures. Moreover, while North Korean state media showcased images of the KN-25 launch, they made no written reference to it specifically. Instead, they used the presence of already fielded systems to create a narrative of routine long-range artillery drills, rather than ongoing development of a new weapon.

Conclusion

Although some technical challenges may remain, the KN-25’s relatively steady testing program likely brings it closer to reliable deployment status than many of the less-tested ballistic systems of varying ranges revealed in recent years.

The development of this long-range guided artillery rocket system blurs the lines between a traditional MRLS projectile and a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). If deployed in large numbers, the KN-25 could represent a significant increase in North Korean capability to conduct a conventional strike at targets 200-400 km away, beyond front lines and deep within South Korean territory, offsetting a smaller payload with a much greater degree of accuracy than the North’s older Scud SRBM derivatives.